Everything about The Hubbert Curve totally explained
The
Hubbert curve projects the rate of oil production over time, and is the main component of
Hubbert peak theory. It was first proposed by
geophysicist M. King Hubbert in the mid 1950s during his tenure at the
Shell Oil Company, and has gained a high degree of popularity in the scientific community for predicting the depletion of various natural resources, as well a prominence in
peak oil discussions.
Basing his calculations on the peak of oil well discovery in 1948, Hubbert used his model in 1956 to accurately predict that oil production in the contiguous United States would peak around 1970.
Shape
The Hubbert Curve isn't a
normal distribution curve, though it may appear similar to one. Some differences are that a
probability density function never reaches zero at either end, and the Hubbert curve isn't a normal distribution. It is the
derivative of the
logistic function:
»
The graph consists of three key elements:
- an initial curve depicting a rise from zero production that then rises drastically as it follows the relatively steep slope of the logistic function;
- a "Hubbert peak," representing the maximum of the mathematical function; and
- the remaining curve as the function drops from the peak in the oil extraction rate and then follows a steep production decline.
Application
According to this model, the rate of oil production is determined by the rate of new oil well discovery. The relative steepness of the projected rate of decline of the production curve is the main cause for concern about the economic and social impact of Peak Oil. This is because a steep drop in the production curve implies that global oil production will decline so rapidly that the world won't have enough time to develop sources of energy to replace the energy now used from oil.
Further Information
Get more info on 'Hubbert Curve'.
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